Peter Mandelson has been proposed as a new European Commissioner. If accepted, he would have to resign his Hartlepool seat and there would be a by-election. The Liberal Democrats are the clear challengers to Labour in Hartlepool, the swing needed to win is less than that recorded by Nicola Davies is last week's by-election.
Liberal Democrat Chief Executive Lord Rennard said "The Labour vote in Hartlepool was down to 31% in the local elections in June with the Liberal Democrats the clear challengers to Labour with 23% of the vote and only 12% for the Conservatives. Liberal Democrats will be fighting the by-election as the clear challengers to Labour at a time when public trust in Labour is at an all-time low."
Nicola Davies said "I am amazed that the Labour Party is prepared to risk another by-election after losing Leicester South to the Liberal Democrats and almost lost Birmingham Hodge Hill last week."
The 2004 Local Elections results in Hartlepool show the Conservatives lying in fifth place in terms of share of the vote:
Labour 31%
Liberal Democrats 23%
Independents 17%
Others 17%
Conservatives 12%
The press are already speculating that the Liberal Democrats could gain the seat.
"[Mr Mandelson] has a majority of 14,500 in Hartlepool, but after losing Leicester South to the Liberal Democrats and nearly losing Birmingham Hodge Hill in by-elections last week, the outcome will not be taken for granted by Labour." - www.bbc.co.uk - 23 July
"His 14,571 majority at the last general election should make Hartlepool a safe seat, but given the Liberal Democrats' success in overturning a big Labour majority in Leicester South earlier this month, party chiefs would take nothing for granted." -www.guardian.co.uk - 23 July
"The prime minister may have accepted that the appointment means Labour could well lose the Hartlepool seat." - Nick Assinder - www.bbc.co.uk - 23 July
"Supporters of Chancellor Gordon Brown flatly oppose any promotion of Mr Mandelson. They particularly oppose him being given a job in Brussels as it would trigger a by-election in his Hartlepool constituency, raising the spectre of another embarrassing defeat for Labour." - Oonagh Blackman - www.mirror.co.uk - 23 July
"His new job will force a vote for his parliamentary seat in northern England, raising the possibility of another embarrassing defeat for Blair. Last week, Labour lost one supposedly safe seat, and nearly another, in two by-elections." - Reuters - 23 July
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